China copper imports surged is not due to increased demand should not be over interpreted in London on February 11th news, imports of copper consumption in the major global Chinese soared, should not be regarded as a sign of the actual demand increase, because the increase in imports more related to inventory. Imports of refined copper surged by 34.4% in December to a record 423181 tons in the same period last year, and projected a large import scale in January. "Our customers expect the RMB will be devalued, inventory in towards the end of last year," Chinese a copper importer said, "arbitrage window has been opened, which is another reason for such a large increase in imports in December." The so-called "arbitrage window" refers to the spread of copper trading between the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai futures exchange. The LME index of copper is about $4500, the second half of last year, most of the time is lower than copper prices. The market had expected that, as China’s imports increased, the spread would narrow until it disappeared, but it has not yet become a reality. "The fundamental reason is that the devaluation of the renminbi, resulting in domestic market participants in Shanghai futures exchange to establish long positions," it said in a report. That may mean that LME bears are increasing at the same time, rather than saying that China’s strong demand has pushed up domestic copper prices". LME registered warehouse inventory of copper 227300 tons, about 40% higher than in August last year, while copper inventory warehouse under the supervision of the Shanghai futures exchange has nearly doubled to 241282 tons. The devaluation of the renminbi makes us dollar denominated commodities more expensive for Chinese customers. China’s central bank devalued the renminbi in August last year, triggering a market shake. The yuan has fallen by nearly 6% against the dollar since then. This year, the global demand for copper is estimated at around 22 million tons, accounting for nearly half of China’s copper demand. China’s copper demand grew by about 2% last year, and this year’s demand growth may not be much improved. "The first half of this year, copper demand is not too good," a Chinese brass and copper bar manufacturer’s manager said, and said that given the domestic stock market is high, air-conditioning manufacturers demand may be weak. Other reasons for the increase in copper imports include the storage and stockpiling of China’s state reserves, and the use of refined copper as a financing collateral. But these reasons could not explain why the copper concentrate (also known as copper ore) a substantial increase in imports of copper concentrate imports in December, year-on-year growth of 26%, to a record 1 million 480 thousand tons of copper concentrate, but cannot be used for mortgage financing. "Refined copper and copper concentrate imports of recovery and the depreciation of the RMB to start a relationship, is trying to further investors before the devaluation of copper reserves in Renminbi," Barclays commodities analyst Dane Davis said. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

中国铜进口飙升并非需求增大所致 不宜过度解读   伦敦2月11日消息,全球主要消费国中国的铜进口量飙升,不应视为实际需求增强的迹象,因为进口的增加更多与补充库存有关。   12月精炼铜进口较上年同期飙升34.4%,达到创纪录的423,181吨,且预估认为,1月份的进口规模也很大。   “我们的客户预计人民币会贬值,在去年临近年底时补充库存,”中国一家铜进口商称,“套利窗口一直开启,这也是12月进口增幅如此之大的另一个原因。”   这里所谓的“套利窗口”是指伦敦金属交易所(LME)和上海期交所铜交易的价差。   LME指标期铜约为4,500美元,去年下半年多数时间都低于沪铜价格。市场曾预期,随着中国进口增多,这一价差将收窄直至消失,但至今尚未成为现实。   “其中根本原因在于人民币贬值,导致国内市场参与者选择在上海期交所建立多头仓位,”麦格理在一份报告中称。   麦格理称,这可能意味着,与此同时LME空头仓位增加,“而不是说中国强劲的需求推高了国内铜价”。   LME注册仓库的铜库存为227,300吨,较去年8月高出约40%,而上海期交所监管下仓库的铜库存增加了近一倍至241,282吨。   人民币贬值令美元计价的大宗商品对于中国客户而言变得更加昂贵。中国央行去年8月让人民币贬值,引发市场震荡。人民币兑美元自那以来已累计下跌近6%。   今年全球铜需求估计在2,200万吨左右,中国占其中的近一半。中国去年铜需求料增长约2%,今年需求增幅可能不会有太大改善。   “今年上半年铜需求不会太好,”一家中国铜管和铜棒生产商的经理说,并称鉴于国内市场库存高企,空调生产商的需求可能疲软。   其他提到的导致铜进口增加的原因包括中国国储局收储,以及将精炼铜作为融资抵押品。   但这些原因无法解释为何铜精矿(又称铜矿砂)进口大幅增加,12月铜精矿进口较上年同期大幅增长26%,至创纪录的148万吨,但铜精矿并不能用于融资抵押。   “精炼铜和铜精矿进口复苏与人民币开始贬值有关系,是投资者试图在人民币进一步贬值前储备铜,”巴克莱的大宗商品分析师Dane Davis说。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: